Analysts Project iPhone Fold Panel Shipments to Nearly Match Galaxy Z Series
The Foldable Market is Bracing for an Apple Shakeup
A new report from Counterpoint Research sheds light on the future of foldable phones, specifically highlighting Apple's looming impact on the market. Looking closely at the data, the insights reveal fascinating shifts in who is making these screens, who is buying them, and how the entire industry is about to change.
Apple’s entry is set to drive a strong 2026 rebound in foldable smartphone panels. While the study focuses on actual panel shipments, we can glean a massive amount of information about who will actually sell the most folding phones. If Apple manages to get their device out before the end of the year, their initial impact will be significant, and that momentum will only snowball into the future.
It is entirely possible that the first folding iPhone could outsell both models of Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 combined. We are not talking about 20 million units right out of the gate, but the projected volume is still massive. For the full year of 2026, smartphone panel shipments for folding phones are forecasted to reach 27.5 million units, which is up 24% from 2025.
Following the Money and the Supply Chain
With total industry revenues expected to reach about $4.4 billion, representing a 48% increase year-over-year, manufacturers are pouring money into this space. Interestingly, analysts predict that Q3 and Q4 shipments combined will account for 64% of the full year's total. This makes perfect sense because the back half of the year is when the major heavy hitters launch, including the Z Fold 8 lineup, the Google Pixel Fold, and presumably Apple’s foldable.
While brands like Oppo, Honor, and Huawei put up impressive numbers, Samsung remains the international volume leader. Of the total panels being shipped in 2026, Samsung is expected to rank number one, securing 31% of those 27.5 million units. This equates to roughly 8.5 million panels split across a Flip, a Fold, and a Fold Ultra.
Apple is projected to capture around 29% of procurement, translating to roughly 8 million panels. Here is the crucial kicker: Apple is hitting 8 million units with a single folding phone, whereas Samsung is splitting 8.5 million units across three different models. This suggests that Apple's lone folding iPhone is anticipated to outsell any single version of Samsung's Z Fold or Z Flip lines.
Meanwhile, Huawei is quietly holding onto a massive 24% share, dominating its region with incredible sales velocity that Western consumers often overlook.
On the manufacturing side, BOE currently leads the market, producing 52% of folding phone panels in early 2025. While they are expected to dip to 45% as Samsung Display gains ground, BOE remains a powerhouse thanks to heavy demand from Huawei and other OEMs. Samsung Display is rising to a 22% share by supplying Samsung, OPPO, and Vivo. Because Apple will likely use Samsung displays for its folding phone, Samsung wins a piece of the pie even when Apple sells a device.
A Major Structural Shift
The overall form factor is undergoing a massive evolution. Infold book-style devices are shifting from broad parity with clamshells to taking a clear lead as clamshell sales decline. More brands used to make Z Flip-style devices, but many have pulled back, leaving the clamshell category primarily to Samsung and Motorola.
The growth of book-style infold devices is driven by productivity use cases, larger screen experiences, and stronger profitability for manufacturers. The market is transitioning toward a three-pillar structure led by Apple, Samsung, and Huawei, while simultaneously shifting from value-oriented clamshells toward wide book-type foldables.
This layout change signals an incredibly exciting era for folding hardware. Even if you have no personal interest in buying an Apple foldable, a rising tide raises all boats. Apple entering the fray forces the competition to innovate faster, experiment with unique aspect ratios, and refine hardware. The market is shifting, choices are expanding, and it has never been a better time to be a foldable phone fan.
You can check out the full breakdown over on the Counterpoint Research article to skim through the details yourself.
