Apple Predicted to Smash NA Folding Phone Market
The US market for foldable phones is about to get much more competitive and crowded. For a long time, it was just the Z Fold, then we got the OnePlus Open and the Pixel Fold in the same year. That was a cool moment where we had three major options at once, but OnePlus eventually pulled back, leaving us with two. This year, we are jumping up to four. We have a Fold from Samsung, the Pixel Fold, the Moto Razr Fold, and the highly anticipated foldable iPhone Ultra.
The Battle for Market Share
Things are going to get interesting very quickly. Counterpoint Research recently released an article with predictions on how this heavyweight battle for market share will shake out. They expect Apple to step in and immediately become a dominant force, capturing 46% of the market in 2026. That sounds wild, but look at the current landscape. In 2025, Samsung holds about 51% of the folding phone market in North America, while Motorola sits at 44%. People often don't realize how much market share Motorola has because they have been focusing primarily on flip phones, and they are very good at selling them.
Counterpoint predicts 48% year-over-year growth for the category in 2026. When Apple enters the fray, they go from 0% share to 46%, and everyone else naturally drops. However, the prediction shows Samsung, Motorola, and Google actually selling fewer units, not just losing percentage points to a growing pie.
It isn't shocking to think Apple could sell more folding iPhones than Samsung sells of the Z Fold 8. Apple is incredibly powerful and they only compete at the premium level. Unlike Samsung, which ships a ton of cheaper phones to boost volume, Apple moves massive numbers of high-end devices. If they price it around $1999, right where the Z Fold 8 will likely sit, it becomes very competitive.
Strategy and Competition
Interestingly, analysts think Motorola will be the biggest loser in this shift, but I am not fully on board with that yet. Motorola seems to be preparing for the fight. Pre-orders for the Razr Fold in the UK have started with aggressive pricing. It is listed at £1799 but discounted to £1579, and they are throwing in a bundle with earbuds, a watch, and a stylus. This might be a sign that Motorola knows they have to be aggressive to keep their market share. If that pricing translates to the US, we could see it at $1799, or perhaps $1999 with a strong pre-order discount.
Samsung isn't sitting still either. Rumors suggest they are releasing a second version of the Z Fold 8, a wider model specifically designed to counter the design and aspect ratio of the rumored Apple foldable. Even with two book-style foldables launching, analysts still expect their total share to dip. It makes a lot of sense why Samsung is trying to go head-to-head with Apple's design language. Do you believe these numbers, or do you think Apple's immediate success is being overestimated? It's going to be a wild year for tech.
